【中英文對照】中外觀年度觀察：中國外交回顧與展望
發(fā)布時間：2017-01-04 10:49:47 | 來源：中國網(wǎng) | 作者： | 責任編輯：李瀟
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中國網(wǎng)總編輯王曉輝 |
| 作者：王曉輝 | By Wang Xiaohui |
| 2016年，不論是對中國還是對世界來說，都注定不會是平靜的一年。美國總統(tǒng)大選，英國公投脫歐，中菲南海爭端，美韓部署“薩德”，地區(qū)沖突加劇，恐怖襲擊不斷……所有這些，都給國際政治和安全帶來極大的不確定性，也給中國的外交帶來了巨大的挑戰(zhàn)。用外交部長王毅的話說，2016年的世界就是兩個字：“變”與“亂”。 | The year 2016 was eventful both to China and other countries. In addition to growing regional conflicts and incessant terrorist attacks, the presidential election of the United States, the exit of Great Britain from the EU, disputes over South Chinese Sea islands between China and the Philippines and the deployment of U.S. Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in South Korea have all added to the uncertainty of international politics and world order and posed great challenges to China's diplomatic work. As Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi put it, the year 2016 could be summed up with two words - "changes" and "chaos." |
| 回顧 | Review |
| 一、 中美關系基本穩(wěn)定，2017年變數(shù)增加 | I. Chinese-U.S. ties remained stable but eventful. |
| 2016年，中美之間有矛盾、有斗爭，也有合作，可以說保持了基本穩(wěn)定的關系。中美兩國領導人通過“瀛臺夜話”、“西湖長談”，不斷進行增信釋疑的戰(zhàn)略溝通，以確保中美關系沿著正確的軌道向前發(fā)展。當然，由于中美之間結(jié)構(gòu)性矛盾，戰(zhàn)略互疑也就成了客觀存在，更何況在許多涉及地緣政治、領土安全、經(jīng)濟利益等具體問題上，兩國之間存在著十分突出的矛盾和沖突。最典型的例子就是中菲南海爭端中美國的幕后推手角色以及在韓國部署“薩德”之舉。 | Ties between China and the United States remained stable in 2016 despite various incidents. After President Obama's visit to Beijing and the G20 Hangzhou Summit, the two countries have strengthened strategic communication, built mutual trust and dispersed doubts, thus ensuring a sound development of ties. But strategic doubts still remain, especially where geopolitics, territorial sovereignty and economic interests are concerned. The South China Sea disputes between China and the Philippines, in which Washington had played a behind-the-scenes role, and the deployment of the U.S. THAAD system in South Korea are just two cases in point. |
| 特朗普當選美國總統(tǒng)之后，出現(xiàn)了一些令人擔憂的苗頭。先是這位當選總統(tǒng)于12月2日與臺灣地區(qū)領導人蔡英文通電話，雖然事后特朗普本人和白宮發(fā)言人均出來做解釋、打補丁，但此事還是給中美關系蒙上了一層陰影，畢竟，這是中美建交37年的第一次。隨后特朗普開始提名內(nèi)閣組成人員，從部分即將入閣的官員過往的對華態(tài)度上，可以預測，今后的中美關系將面臨來自白宮內(nèi)部的壓力。 | Since Donald Trump was elected to be the next President of the United States, Chinese-U.S. relations have shown worrisome signs. On Dec. 2, Trump talked with Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen on the phone. Despite explanations by the President-elect himself and the White House's spokesperson afterwards, the call cast a shadow over bilateral ties, as such a thing hadn't happened in the 37 years since the two countries established diplomatic ties. Moreover, Trump's cabinet picks and their attitudes toward China also indicated that the development of bilateral relations will face great pressure from the White House in the future. |
| 二、“黑天鵝”事件頻現(xiàn)，影響世界政治走向 | II. Frequent "black swan" events affected the world. |
| 2016年是多事之秋。國際上大事不斷，加之“黑天鵝”事件頻頻出現(xiàn)，使得國際政治的不確定性增加，甚至政治走向也會發(fā)生改變。 | A lot of events happened in 2016 that were unexpected and had a major impact on the world. They made the world even more uncertain and are highly likely to change the progress of international politics. |
| 美國大選中，“黑馬”特朗普完成驚天逆轉(zhuǎn)，摘得美國總統(tǒng)桂冠；英國公投脫歐，首相卡梅倫辭職，在歐盟引發(fā)了強烈震蕩；政治生涯逐漸走順的樸槿惠，突然爆出“閨蜜門”，韓國朝野一片嘩然，終于一發(fā)不可收拾，被迫辭職；12月5日，意大利總理倫齊和新西蘭總理約翰?基同一日宣布辭職；12月19日，俄羅斯駐土耳其大使遇刺身亡…… | Trump's surprise win in the U.S. presidential election, the shock of Brexit and the following resignation of British Prime Minister David Cameron, the final resignation of scandal-embattled South Korean president Park Geun-hye, the resignations of the prime ministers of New Zealand and Italy on the same day and the assassination of Russian ambassador in Turkey are just a few of the major "black swan" events from last year. |
| 商人出身的特朗普和他的富商幕僚會將美國帶到哪條路上？會不會挑起與中國新一輪的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)？英國脫歐與意大利公投失敗帶來的金融動蕩，給本來就缺乏凝聚力的歐盟帶來怎樣的影響？所有這些，加上一年之內(nèi)美國、巴西、英國、韓國、意大利、泰國、新西蘭等多個國家總統(tǒng)、總理發(fā)生變化，必然在一定程度上改變世界的政治面貌，影響世界的政治走向。 | What will happen to the United States after its businessman-cum-president assumes office with his team of billionaires? Will there be another round of trade wars with China? Besides the jitters in the financial market, what impact will Brexit and Italy's referendum leave on an already struggling EU? The changes of state leaders in the United States, Brazil, Britain, South Korea, Italy, Thailand, New Zealand and many other countries will surely affect world politics. |
| 三、“南海仲裁案”翻頁，中菲關系戲劇反轉(zhuǎn) | III. Philippines' U-turn towards China after the South China Sea arbitration case. |
| 2016年，最讓中國人印象深刻的外交大事件之一莫過于菲律賓南海仲裁案。從年初一直到7月中旬，沸沸揚揚的南海仲裁案才以非法、無效的裁決鬧劇結(jié)束。在此之前，菲律賓阿基諾三世政府單方面提起仲裁，寄希望于通過臨時仲裁庭這樣一個“草臺班子”做出的非法裁決，將本不屬于自己的領土和權(quán)益納入囊中。美國、日本等國的支持和慫恿，也給了阿基諾三世把事情鬧大的底氣。這雖然不是“豪奪”，但絕對算得上“巧取”。 | The arbitration of the South China Sea disputes, which was initiated unilaterally by former Filipino president Benigno S. Aquino III, the United States, Japan and a handful of other third-party countries, had a deep impression on the Chinese people last year, as it started on the first day of the Chinese lunar new year and ended in July with an illegal and void ruling. |
| 在這場水深浪急的外交斗爭中，中國展現(xiàn)出了高度的政治實力和應對能力，最終使這場鬧劇無疾而終。 | During the process, China showed strong political power and responded skillfully. |
| 6月30日，杜特爾特宣誓就任菲律賓總統(tǒng)。這位聰明、現(xiàn)實的新總統(tǒng)沒有硬著頭皮接下前任留給他的負面政治遺產(chǎn)，而是主動與中國改善關系，把中國作為上任后東盟以外的首訪國家。中菲關系的華麗轉(zhuǎn)身看起來頗具戲劇性，其實，這是中國三十多年來改革開放、自強不息的結(jié)果，也是中國政府和人民上下一心、眾志成城的結(jié)果。中菲南海問題趨于平靜，中菲關系向好，為中國今后通過談判和共同開發(fā)解決南海問題打下了良好的基礎，也為維護中國和平發(fā)展環(huán)境起到了至關重要的作用，應該載入史冊。 | When Rodrigo Duterte assumed office as the new Filipino president on June 30, the realistic man didn't inherent the negative political baggage left behind by his predecessor, but made the wise choice to choose China as the first country to visit outside the ASEAN region, thus mending ties with China. The gradual return to stability in the South China Sea and the restoration of Chinese-Filipino relations will lay a foundation for solving the South China Sea issue through talks and joint development. It's also vitally important to promoting a peaceful environment for China's development. This event will go down in history. |
| 四、“一帶一路”穩(wěn)步推進，周邊外交縱橫捭闔 | IV. The Belt and Road Initiative made steady progress; diplomatic activities with neighboring countries achieved positive results. |
| 2016年，中國國家主席習近平提出的“一帶一路”倡議已經(jīng)進入了全面推進、初見成效的時期。隨著亞投行、絲路基金和眾多經(jīng)濟合作項目的設立，“一帶一路”建設正在從倡議進入實施階段。 | Last year saw the steady and comprehensive progress of the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping. With the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the Silk Road Fund and various economic cooperative programs, the initiative has gradually come into being. |
| 2016年9月，在杭州舉辦的G20峰會，成了向世界推廣中國治理模式的平臺，而“一帶一路”建設自然而然地成了中國模式的主要內(nèi)容。習近平主席年內(nèi)的5次出訪，也有力地推動了“一帶一路”建設。從年初開始，習近平主席的足跡遍及五大洲14個國家，其主線都是在推動“一帶一路”外交的實施。 | At the G20 Hangzhou Summit in September last year, China provided the world with a new model of global governance, and the Belt and Road Initiative provided a promotional platform for the model. The five overseas trips to 14 countries President Xi made last year were a boon to the development of the initiative. |
| 與“一帶一路”外交相輔相成的是，2016年中國政府在周邊外交上持續(xù)發(fā)力，成效顯著。“G20杭州峰會”成了中國政府推動全球治理、開展周邊外交的舞臺。10月份，習主席訪問柬埔寨，發(fā)出了中國重視老朋友，珍惜傳統(tǒng)友誼的明確信號；以昂山素季為首的緬甸新政府把中國作為東盟之外的首訪國家，表達了愿意續(xù)寫“胞波”情誼的愿望；斯里蘭卡新政府也認識到中國的誠意，以科倫坡港口城為代表的合作建設項目重新啟動。 | Moreover, much progress has been made in China's diplomatic activities with neighboring countries. The G20 Hangzhou Summit offered a platform for China to participate in global governance and enhance its ties with neighbors. President Xi's visit to Cambodia, Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi's choice of China as the first country to visit outside the ASEAN region and Sri Lanka's resumption of the Colombo Port City project are just a few of the results China achieved last year. |
| 中國秉持“以鄰為伴、與鄰為善”的外交方針，但在地區(qū)安全、國家利益、領土主權(quán)等大是大非的問題上，一貫立場堅定、旗幟鮮明。中國堅持朝鮮半島無核化立場，反對美韓部署“薩德”反導系統(tǒng)，對菲律賓南海諸島主權(quán)的無禮要求以及日本搬弄是非、煽風點火的行為給予了堅決回擊。正是憑借親、誠、惠、容的外交理念和剛?cè)岵耐饨皇侄危袊闹苓呁饨徊拍芸v橫捭闔、可圈可點。 | China consistently pursues a foreign policy of building friendship and partnership with its neighbors. It also keeps a consistent and clear position when major issues like regional security, national interests and territorial sovereignty are concerned. Therefore, China has insisted on the promotion of the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, on opposition to the deployment of the U.S. THAAD system in South Korea, on the dismissal of the illegal claims on the South China Sea islands by the Philippines and on a firm reaction to all of Japan's trouble-making activities. All the achievements China has made in the diplomatic field should be attributed to its regional policy of amity, sincerity, mutual benefit and inclusiveness, its firm stance on important issues and its skillful approaches in diplomatic activities. |
| 五、“逆全球化”浪潮涌起，中國成中流砥柱 | V. China upheld free trade while anti-globalization gained increasing popularity. |
| “逆全球化”并非新生事物，而是“全球化”的伴生物，由來已久，其根源則是國際金融危機導致的經(jīng)濟衰退。近年來，美國和日本經(jīng)濟增長乏力，而歐洲經(jīng)濟則陷于衰退之中難以自拔，加上歐美中東政策導致的難民問題，更是讓貿(mào)易保護主義抬頭，“逆全球化”的潮流有了市場。 | Anti-globalization is nothing new, but a concomitant of globalization. It stems from the economic recession that followed in the wake of the global financial crisis. In recent years, the United States and Japan have witnessed sluggish growth, Europe has been stuck in recession, and the refugee crisis remains unresolved in the Middle East - all these issues have given rise to trade protectionism and a trend of anti-globalization. |
| 2016年12月，日本正式宣布不承認中國的市場經(jīng)濟地位，歐盟宣稱要維持“替代國”的做法，而美國則發(fā)出了在特朗普上臺之后對中國產(chǎn)品征收45%懲罰性關稅的威脅。這三方的“大合唱”可以說是2016年最為洶涌的一波“逆全球化”浪潮了。 | In late 2016, Japan announced it would not recognize China's market economy status, the European Union said it would continue with the alternative country approach in trade and American President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose 45 percent tariff on Chinese goods. This was one of the most severe anti-globalization moves in 2016. |
| 中國自上世紀80年代至今，堅持改革開放，不斷融入國際社會，參與全球治理，已經(jīng)從全球化的最大受益者變身為全球化的最有力的推動者。在2016年9月G20杭州峰會上，中國為構(gòu)建創(chuàng)新、活力、聯(lián)動、包容的世界經(jīng)濟提供了中國方案，這是中國為推動全球化做出的最大貢獻。當然，中國能為全球化的全球治理做出貢獻的前提是自身經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展。還是小平同志當年的那句話：發(fā)展是硬道理。 | Since the 1980s, China has been committed to reform and opening-up, integrating itself into the international community and engaging in global governance. It has changed its role from a major beneficiary to an unwavering promoter of globalization. During the G20 Hangzhou Summit in September 2016, China contributed its plans for building an innovative, invigorated, interconnected and inclusive world economy, which was one of the greatest contributions made to globalization. Of course, the contribution cannot come without the country's own economic development. In Deng Xiaoping's words, development is key. |
| 展望 | Prospects |
| 大國要有大國的風范與氣象，胸懷與擔當。2017年，世界和平與發(fā)展的大趨勢不會改變，但各種亂象還將持續(xù)。中國要在復雜多變的國際局勢中發(fā)揮“穩(wěn)定器”的作用，為自身營造和平發(fā)展的環(huán)境，同時，也為世界的和平與發(fā)展做出貢獻。 | A major country should have a befitting presence and take on its due responsibilities. Peace and development will still be the main theme in the world in 2017, but chaos and disorder will linger as well. China will be playing the stabilizing role in a complicated and capricious international arena, creating a peaceful environment for its own development as well as contributing to the peace and development of the world. |
| 一、處理好大國關系，確保中美、中俄關系持續(xù)、健康、穩(wěn)定發(fā)展。中美關系的關鍵是先管控分歧，再務實合作。中美兩個大國只有相互尊重，照顧彼此的核心利益和重大關切，如臺灣問題，才有可能長久穩(wěn)定合作，實現(xiàn)互利共贏。中俄戰(zhàn)略合作伙伴關系發(fā)展平穩(wěn)，2017年在加強合作的同時，應關注美俄、日俄關系的新進展，把握平衡。 | First, China should properly handle relations with major countries, ensuring the continuation of sound and stable development in China-U.S. and China-Russia ties. The key to China-U.S. relations is to manage disagreements before committing to pragmatic cooperation. The two countries can only have long-term stable cooperation and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results when they respect each other and take into consideration the issues concerning the other's core interests and major concerns, for instance the Taiwan issue. The current China-Russian strategic partnership is sound and stable. While enhancing cooperation with Russia, China should closely watch new developments in U.S.-Russia and Japan-Russia ties in 2017. |
| 二、鞏固2016年針對菲律賓南海仲裁案的外交成果，爭取南部海疆的長期穩(wěn)定。中菲關系的改善具有典型意義，應以此為契機，強化中國在南海擱置爭議共同開發(fā)的一貫理念，讓世界看到中國是講道理的文明大國。 | Second, China should cement the diplomatic achievements made after the South China Sea arbitration in 2016 and strive for the long-time stability of its southern waters. The improvements in China-Philippines relations can and should be used as a demonstration of China's commitment to the principle of "shelving disputes and engaging in joint exploitation," as well as its pledge to playing by the book. |
| 三、關注朝鮮半島局勢，深耕周邊外交。朝鮮和韓國這對冤家都在中國的家門口，一個要搞核試驗，一個要部署“薩德”，而韓國當下又因總統(tǒng)“閨蜜門”面臨政權(quán)更迭的局面，使得本來就不穩(wěn)定的朝鮮半島局勢變得更加緊張和難以預測。因此，朝鮮半島一定是中國外交關注的重點，半島無核化是中國必須堅持的立場。 | Third, China should keep a close eye on the Korean Peninsula and invest in the relations with its neighbors. The situation on the Korean Peninsula is becoming more intense and unpredictable, as North Korea continues to carry out nuclear tests and South Korea intends to deploy the THAAD system while in the midst of a transition in leadership following the impeachment of its scandal-ridden president. The peninsula is a key for China's foreign relations, and the country must uphold the principle of denuclearization on the peninsula. |
| 四、2017年，中國在推進與東南亞國家雙邊外交的同時，應重點關注并處理好與同美國越走越近的新加坡的關系。中國要充分發(fā)揮上合組織的機制作用和“一帶一路”建設的推動作用，與中亞國家建立更加密切的經(jīng)濟交往和國際合作。 | Fourth, while promoting bilateral relations with Southeast Asian countries, China should pay attention to its relations with Singapore, which is moving closer to the United States. China should also forge closer economic ties and other forms of cooperation with Central Asian countries through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Belt and Road Initiative. |
| 五、推進“一帶一路”建設，以經(jīng)濟合作促進外交關系。“一帶一路”既是經(jīng)貿(mào)合作的平臺，也是開展外交的舞臺。2017年是習近平主席倡導“一帶一路”的第四個年頭，建設成果初步顯現(xiàn)，得到了越來越多的國家的認同和支持。這也充分說明，中國深化國際合作的創(chuàng)新實踐，必須與外交大局相輔相成，才能相得益彰。 | Fifth, the Belt and Road Initiative should be promoted, and economic cooperation should facilitate diplomacy. The Belt and Road is not only a platform for economic cooperation but also for foreign relations. The year 2017 marks the fourth year of the introduction of the Belt and Road Initiative, and the initial achievements have been made and won the recognition and support of an increasing number of countries. This proves that innovations in deepening international cooperation must go along with major diplomatic moves so as to benefit each other. |
| 六、積極參與全球治理，大步邁向世界舞臺中央。2017年，中國應繼續(xù)鞏固和落實G20杭州峰會成果，借助重要的國際會議如達沃斯論壇、上合組織和APEC等多邊合作機制，特別是在中國舉辦的“一帶一路”國際合作高峰論壇和金磚國家第九次會晤兩大主場外交，推廣中國方案，在全球治理中發(fā)揮更大的作用，大步邁向世界舞臺的中央。 | Sixth, China should actively participate in global governance and have greater presence in the international community. It should implement the agreements achieved in the G20 Hangzhou Summit, make good use of a number of multilateral cooperation mechanisms - including the World Economic Forum and Shanghai Cooperation Organization - as well as of the opportunity to host the Belt and Road international forum and the 9th BRICS summit, in order to contribute Chinese solutions to global governance while engaging with the international community. |
| 2017年的世界不會平靜，2017年的中國外交更不會平凡。借用李白的一句詩作為新年寄語：長風破浪會有時，直掛云帆濟滄海！ | The world will not be a peaceful one in 2017, but Chinese diplomacy will be more than remarkable. Let me quote a line from the great ancient poet Li Bai as a wish for the new year: "A time will come to ride the wind and cleave the waves, I'll set my cloudlike sail to cross the sea which raves." |